If several balls are rolling down the plane at the same time, this first ridge will become a point of bifurcation for the entire system. Some balls will move in one direction (depending on the pattern of oscillation when encountering the ridge) and roll down one valley, while other balls will move in a different direction, rolling down one or more of the other valleys. A ball may gain enough momentum to roll over the top of one ridge into a second valley. If there is not sufficient momentum, the ball will remain in the current valley.
Thus, a few critical moments in the life of the ball’s roll down the plane make a major difference in the outcome of the roll. The pattern of oscillation determines which valley is chosen and whether or not the momentum is sufficient for the ball to shift to another valley. There is a cluster of conditions (in the form of valleys and ridges) that define the specific alternative courses to be taken by the ball.
Order, Chaos and Oscillation
Waddington’s warped plane relates directly to the alternating patterns of chaos and order that many complexity theorists have identified. The tendency toward order is evident in the movement of the ball down a specific valley. Once we know which valley is chosen, we can predict the movement of the ball back and forth down this valley. However, before the ball moves into a specific valley we can only guess on its ultimate pattern. In essence, balls appear to be probing for order and a specific direction of movement. The balls engage in a process of oscillation that occurs immediately before the balls bifurcate and begin rolling down one of the specific valleys.
Probing is a trial-and-error (seeking oscillating) process in which many different options are examined and even tested. It plays a critical role in any evolutionary process. For instance, natural biological evolution requires the spontaneous fluctuation of species and the subsequent irreversible selection of specific species-specific characteristics. Successful adaptation of any type—whether individual or organizational, reactive or creative—must always contain a random component. In essence, an organism that is seeking to adapt to a changing condition or environment begins by trying out a variety of behaviors. It will fluctuate in its behavior and become temporarily unpredictable, as in the case of the ball’s oscillating back and forth at the top of the warped plane.
Several biologists have recently suggested that oscillation tends to occur in many organisms at a point immediately prior to its transition from a stable to chaotic state and its ultimate commitment to a specific, irreversible course of action (a bifurcation). Many of these oscillating behaviors— these trial-and-error (innovative) efforts—are not effective. They do not work. One or two do work, however, leading the organism to expand its repertoire and shift its regular mode of functioning to accommodate these changes.
The exploratory processes—the endless trial and error of mental progress—can achieve the new state only by embarking upon pathways randomly presented, some of which are selected for the survival of an individual or organization. We may, as a species, be involved right now in this exploratory process regarding our capacity to live with our current pandemic and other pandemics that will inevitably occur in our increasingly flat and interconnected world.
