Before identifying the nature and challenges associated with each of these four subsystems, we offer the positive side: there is nothing more beautiful and variable than a mountain stream, with its falls, whirlpools, rivulets, and quiet pools of water. The stream is beautiful in part because it is always changing. Like the flickering flames in a fireplace, the crash of waves on an ocean beach, or the fall of snow on a winter evening, there is always something new (emergent) evolving from the unpredictable interplay of various subsystems in the mountain stream.
The whole is always something more than the sum of its parts. If one looks more closely at this extraordinarily complex system, one finds the four subsystems operating in the stream. These four subsystems interact to produce increased complexity and they, in turn, produce a phase change (tipping point) which becomes the magical white-water world of the flowing stream (the positive side), as well as the VUCA-Plus challenges of unpredictability and contradiction (the negative side).
What is the negative (or at least challenging) systemic Impact? Four subsystems are all operating at the same time—and they are often bumping into one another. There is another important factor that we must add to this complex equation. We know that any system will grow chaotic when it moves faster. Thus, in a world where accelerating change (the first subsystem) is becoming more prevalent, then we are likely to find that chaos (the fourth subsystem) will also become more prevalent. The cyclical changes—that are more predictable—will become less prevalent.
These four different environments require quite different approaches to leadership.
Rapidly Changing Environment: There is the rapidly flowing subsystem of the stream. The movement in this subsystem is very rapid and highly predictable. When we watch a leaf being carried by this subsystem we can readily tell where it will be two seconds from now. The flow of water in this subsystem resembles the flow in a large river: powerful, constant and quiet. This subsystem of the stream exemplifies the orderly subsystems in an organization.
While rapid change has long been identified as the major challenge facing our organizations and societies – beginning with Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock and The Third Wave (Toffler, 1984)—it is actually not the most challenging sub-system in our white-water world. In fact, we can get addicted to this rapid change. There is an adrenaline rush when we turn around turning knobs and changing polities in the face of a rapidly shifting external environment. In this state of addiction, we can even envision change when it is not actually present—or it is change that is predictable because of seasonal shifts or recurrent patterns in our society. These changes fit with our third sub-system.
Cyclical Environment: A second kind of subsystem of the stream is also orderly, though it is much more complex. This is the whirlpool that is formed when the water hits an impediment (such as a submerged rock). The water in a whirlpool keeps changing directions; however, one can predict the change in directions since the water is moving in a predictable spiral formation. We know where the leaf that enters a whirlpool will be two seconds from now. However, we may not be able to predict where it will be in five seconds—since the whirlpool is likely to pull the leaf down below the surface of the water and throw it off into some other subsystem.
