Regression and the Search for a Silver Bullet
What then is the solution? How does thoughtful, systemic thinking and decision-making operate to help us effectively address future pandemics. Let’s cut immediately to the chase: there probably was not a silver bullet available in 2020 to solve the problem. No social policy could bring the death rate down to an “acceptable level.” Even though several vaccines were produced by the end of 2020, there remained the major challenge of distribution given the widely differential levels of economic vitality and presence of health-related infrastructures from country to country. Dire predictions made by the epidemiologist may be coming true. We might need to slow down our thinking and challenge our humane, short-term perspective on confronting the virus with a broad-based application of social distancing public policies, complemented by vaccine-based immunization. Good intentions might not be enough. We need to do a better job of thinking in a systemic manner, as Forrester and Meadows propose, but this might also not be enough.
For a moment we need to stand still rather than do something—especially as we get ready for future pandemics. The herd is starring at us from not too far away. Our slow thinking might be leading us to the difficult and anxiety-provoking conclusion that our policy must change. This recognition, in turn, creates more anxiety and pushes us back to fast thinking. Our rational system of thought and problem-solving will easily collapsed. The baseball once again might fly over the backstop. Death counts mount everywhere in the world. Like Dalkowski, we (collectively) seek out something that will numb the pain of failure.
The movement to slow, systemic thinking will not be easy. In many ways, the outcomes of our attempts to cope with COVID-19 could have been predicted. We know that all VUCA Plus issues are usually not handled in a thoughtful manner by Americans (or virtually anyone else in the world). These issues tend to be heavily ladened with anxiety—and this anxiety not only makes us vulnerable to disease (psychogenesis). It also impacts on the way we think about and feel about the source of the anxiety—in this case COVID-19. The anxiety must be metabolized (transformed) in a way that contains and reduces the anxiety (Bergquist, 2020a).
Typically, the metabolism only takes place by regressing to a lower level of thought and feeling. We turn “primitive” in our assessment of the lurking force or entity that wishes to do us harm. For instance, Christakis (2020, p. 21) notes that bats are often the ultimate culprits in the transmission of viruses (for some reason pathogens move easily between bats and humans). They are perfect sources of evil, having often been the source in many societies of profound villainy and horror (Dracula?). We envision bat-like, shadowy viruses lurking in our closets, ready to bite us in the neck and turn us into flesh-eating zombies – or worst yet into political opponents.
