We can turn even closer to the source of epidemiological expertise–the aforementioned Dr. Michael Osterholm (2020). As one of the experts who engaged in slow, systemic thinking when considering the best way to address the COVID-19 virus, Osterholm moves well beyond the domain of medicine and virology. He suggests that the fundamental question be framed as follows: How do we maintain (preserve) our society? Along with many other epidemiologists, he came to the sobering conclusion that ultimately between 60 and 70% of the people in the world will have to be inoculated or infected. They will either become immunity to the virus or pass away. Furthermore, we will be facing the challenge of COVID-19 (and other viruses in the future) for many months (or even years). If Osterholm is correct, then viruses will become a lingering factor in all societies, erupting in one community after another and bringing about social and economic disruption wherever it erupts.
Osterholm is not alone. Many other medical and epidemiological experts have joined him in declaring that this will be a war not a battle. Just as American (and other nation’s) armed forces have been in Afghanistan for many years, so we must acknowledge that the COVID-19 virus –and many future pandemic viruses—are strong and persistent enemies that will not easily be defeated. For us to somehow bear the weight of these long-term healthcare war, Osterholm insists that we engage universal (or near universal) testing and tracking procedures that yield high quality (valid) results. The medical leaders in all societies need to know how to use high-quality testing procedure and must steer clear of either inequitable distribution of these tests or use inferior tests that yield invalid results. A systems-based contact tracing process must be engaged.
Appropriate NPI behavior is required. We now know that the COVD-19 virus can (and will) mutate. This virus (and future ones) learns how to adapt to the human organism. Our enemy is fleet of foot and capable of change. However, we do have a defense against the virus to which it cannot adapt. We can be just as fleet of foot and capable of change as the virus. This adaptive defense is our modification of social behavior. The virus can’t move from person to person if the second person isn’t nearby or if the second person is protected with an effective, “leak-proof” mask. If we are staying at home, then the virus would have to knock on our front door—and we don’t have to let it enter. The virus can’t swirl around an unmasked crowd if this crowd is never convened.
