With good and fair testing and tracing procedures engaged throughout the world and with appropriate social behavior in place, leaders of our global communities can make difficult but informed decisions about where to allocate resources and can determine which sub-populations in particular need to be protected and sheltered. It is only when effective testing protocols, tracing procedures and social distancing policies are fully in place that we can selectively answer the short-term question: how and when do we “open up”? And it is only at the point when we have valid and useful information that we can answer the related question: to whom and how should we be directing often scarce medical resources when a new pandemic virus begins to spread worldwide?
As a slow, thoughtful analyst, Osterholm envisions a systems-based approach to addressing the COVID-19 crisis. He declares that this approach will only be effective if several other foundational elements are in place. These elements are required for societies around the world to survive. First, health care workers must be fully protected with fully available and functioning protective equipment. This means that greater attention needs to be given to and higher priority assigned to the task of producing (and stockpiling) this equipment.
Second, the health care systems they serve must not be overwhelmed—which means that communities must periodically issue stay-at-home orders. The question of opening up will be answered differently from one community to the next, with the answer changing from month to month, depending on up-to-date testing data and results of ongoing contact tracing that can be accessed by members of this community. Long-term, health care resources must be greatly increased (and held in reserve) so that health care systems are not readily overwhelmed.
