And what are the outcomes of these analyses? Two particularly relevant insights are generated as they relate to the spread of COVID-19. First, there is the matter of rapid expansion in the outbreak. Something that is often called the Power Law is operating. As in the case of many systemic phenomena (such as birth rates, global warming and nuclear explosions), the spread of viruses is exponential. There is a rapid doubling of infections as a virus spreads out (Christakis, 2020). The impact of a virus rapidly spreading is just as tragic as that of a nuclear weapon being detonated. The Nuclear Effect of a virus can’t be underestimated. One day we look out at our world and nothing appears to be amiss. The next day we find that our world has changed forever.
The second insight concerns delay. System dynamic theorists suggest that delays in any complex system often have a greater impact on the way this system operates than does any of its other properties (such as the nature and size of entities operating inside the system). Delays can occur in the movement of entities inside a system, as well as movement of information about these entities. In the case of COVID-19, there were clear delays during 2020 in the flow of information about the virus between countries, and major delays in the production and distribution of testing equipment, medical supplies and vaccines. Even more profound delays occurred in the formulation and implementation in many countries of public policies regarding such matters as tracing of infections and enforcement of NPI policies. The Delay Effect might be just as important as the Nuclear Effect in coming to terms with our failure to meet the COVID-19 challenge.
The results generated by system-based analyses are often counter-intuitive—that is to say, the models often come up with outcomes that are quite different from what was anticipated. We are doing what is intuitively and humanely “the right thing”. However, the outcomes of our caring actions end up being destructive—even catastrophic. We might be finding that the well-intended actions we are taking to meet the COVID-19 challenge have been way off the mark because we have not engaged in the system-based analyses advocated by those engaged in system dynamics. Our basic assumptions about compassionate acts might have to be questioned.
