There is the second pathway. Group members do not find a courageous leader. They must hope that this leader will emerge and will go on a collective quest to find this leader. There might be an ongoing “audition” of the courageous leader, with each potential leader failing in their efforts to successfully defeat the enemy. At times, when the group fails to find a courageous leader, members of the group will revert from a “fight” mentality to a “flight” mentality. They might look for and often find a flight leader who will offer an escape strategy, be this humor, substance abuse, or a form of existential indifference (“Is that all there is. If that’s all there, is then lets’ break out the booze and have a ball!”).
As in the case of an assumption regarding wisdom, there is also a third pathway regarding courage. Members of the group can acknowledge that courage is to be found in the heads and hearts of group members. Alternatively, the group comes to full recognition that threat doesn’t really exist. There is only a “false lion” that may have been created to divert the group from its “real” task. The “enemy” is now identified as existing in the group itself. This “enemy” is the group’s anxiety, the unwillingness of group members to take a risk, or perhaps the unwillingness of group members to acknowledge the real reason for the existence of their group.
Vison: This brings us to the third assumption. The group can look to a member of the group to provide a compelling vision of the future (Polak, 1973). As in the case of wisdom and courage, this assumption can be reconstructed in three parts. First, the group assumes that it is operating in a world that is filled with potential. The future is swirling about. Opportunities abound. It only requires a leader to emerge who can articulate this vision and guide the group in realizing that the envisioned future can be achieved.
It is critical for this visionary group to be realistic about the opportunities that are available. Just as groups can easily invent their own lions, it is also tempting to invent an opportunity that doesn’t actually exist. When anxious, members of a group can revert to one of the most primitive of all defense against anxiety—this being Denial: “there is no problem here. We have only to wish upon a star . . . “ JIminy Cricket might have had something important to say in Disney’s Pinocchio about wish-granting stars, given the war-torn world in which he was singing during the early 1940s. Wishes may come true; however, mid-21st Century groups have to move beyond this wishful cricket.
The second assumption concerns the credibility of the visionary leader on whom a group invests their Hopes. This leader might be charismatic (“I have a dream”) or someone with relevant data (“As a futurist, I have collected predictions from 600 technology experts suggesting that there is a 70% chance that XYZ will be created by 2035”). The selected visionary might instead be someone who is “in touch” with the current needs and fears of the group and is simply suggesting that these needs will be met and fears ameliorated in the near future. This is an opportunistic visionary who will usually provide little long-term guidance.
As with the search for a wise or courageous leader, there are two pathways toward identification of a visionary leader. The first pathway leads the group to identification of someone who already has a vision. The group has only to embrace this person and their vision. Sometimes, this person isn’t the charismatic or fact-filled futurist; rather, they are the quiet one, who has been sitting back and absorbing information from other group members. When they finally are encouraged to articulate their vision, it “hits home” with the group because it contains elements of what other group members wish for. This is not the opportunistic leader, for it is responsive to the wishes and hope of group members rather than just their needs (or fears).
