Loss and Optimism
As Gilbert seems to be suggesting, we can find authentic happiness while stumbling forward and learning as we venture into our future. We might be able to bypass Regret by pushing forward into the future; however, can we find happiness when faced with potential loss? There is the legendary tale of two boys who are asked to open the door of a room. One of the boys opens the door and finds a pony standing there. He begins to cry, declaring that this means “I will have to clean up a lot of manure.” The second boy opens the door and finds that the room is filled with manure. The boy jumps for joy, declaring, “With all of this manure, there must be a pony here!” The first boy is a pessimist. The second boy is an optimist. There is manure in the future of both boys; however, one rejoices in the prospect of finding a pony, while the other despairs in viewing the prospect of manure.
In our mid-21st-century society, we might ask which type of boy is likely to prevail. Matt Ridley (2011) rational optimist, p. 18) offers his conclusion:
“A constant drumbeat of pessimism usually drowns out any triumphalist song … If you say the world has been getting better you may get away with being called naive and insensitive. If you say the world is going to go on getting better, you are considered embarrassingly mad. If, on the other hand, you say catastrophe is imminent, you may expect a McArthur genius award or even the Nobel Peace Prize. In my own adult lifetime .. . the fashionable reasons for pessimism changed, but the pessimism was constant.”
Why might Ridley be correct in his observation? I think it has to do with the challenging conditions we face in our contemporary world of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, turbulence, and contradiction (VUCA-Plus) (Bergquist, 2025). It is hard to be overly optimistic about navigating these “white water conditions.” We are not open to Gilbert’s leaning and learning into the future when we are simply trying to survive in a turbulent environment. We are likely to be tossed about while trying to anticipate the next correction we must make regarding our work-related strategies and even our most prized values. The prospect of finding manure when opening the next door is great. It is hard to find a pony when the manure is piled high in the room, and ways in which to remove the manure are not terribly clear.
Can we really find happiness amid VUCA-Plus conditions? Is authentic optimism regarding the prospect of a pony to be found in our world, or is there only foolish and blinded optimism, which leads us to a much safer pessimism? We make plans for cleaning up the manure.
Authentic Optimism
Peter Vaill suggests that there is an alternative to making plans for clearing out the manure. We can embrace a distinctive approach to discovering and appreciating the ultimate source of the manure—this being a pony or perhaps a whole herd of ponies. There are vast opportunities for success (many ponies) even amid VUCA-Plus. We can achieve an authentic optimism by pushing toward a deep understanding of and appreciation for the conditions of VUCA-Plus that we face. With this appreciation comes the capacity to effectively plan for the appearance of ponies and opportunities.
