Waddington’s warped plane relates directly to the alternating patterns of chaos and order that many complexity theorists have identified. The tendency toward order is evident in the movement of the ball down a specific valley. Once we know which valley is chosen, we can predict the movement of the ball back and forth down this valley. However, before the ball moves into a specific valley we can only guess. In essence, the balls appear to be groping for order and a specific direction of movement. The balls engage in a process of oscillation that occurs immediately before the balls bifurcate and begin rolling down one of the specific valleys. Groping is a trial-and-error (oscillating) process in which many different options are examined and even tested—which leads us back to the relationship between evolution and innovation that I discussed in the first half of this essay. Natural evolution requires the spontaneous fluctuation of species and the subsequent irreversible selection of specific species-specific characteristics. Successful adaptation of any type—whether individual or organizational, reactive or creative—must always contain a random component. In essence, as I noted previously, an organism that is seeking to adapt to a changing condition or environment begins by trying out a variety of behaviors. It will fluctuate in its behavior and become temporarily unpredictable, as in the case of the ball’s oscillating back and forth at the top of the warped plane.
Several biologists have recently suggested that oscillation tends to occur in many organisms at a point immediately prior to its transition from a stable to chaotic state and its ultimate commitment to a specific, irreversible course of action (a bifurcation). Many of these oscillating behaviors—these trial-and-error (innovative) efforts—are not effective. They do not work. One or two do work, however, leading the organism to expand its repertoire and shift its regular mode of functioning to accommodate these changes. The exploratory processes—the endless trial and error of mental progress—can achieve the new state only by embarking upon pathways randomly presented, some of which are selected for the survival of an individual or organization.
